Subscribers & churn
Your starting point and retention curve
Growth simulator
Subscription Box Growth Simulator
Model subscribers, MRR, and cumulative profit over 24 months. Every input updates the forecast live so you can see how churn compounds, how acquisition stacks, and the exact month your box turns profitable.
- 24Month horizonFull year-2 outlook
- 3Side-by-side scenariosCurrent, optimistic, pessimistic
- ±2%Scenario churn deltaBuilt-in stress tests
- FreeAlwaysNo sign-up needed
Live inputs
Enter your box numbers
Defaults reflect a typical 100-subscriber box starting year one. Edit the inputs to match yours — results recalculate instantly.
Pricing & unit economics
Per-box price and margin
Acquisition model
How new subscribers stack each month
Planned price change (optional)
Model a future price increase
24-month outlook
Where your current inputs land you
Subscriber base, MRR, profitability month, and total profit — all on your current scenario. Change inputs above to update.
Month 12 subscribers
208
Projected base after year one
Month 24 subscribers
253
Projected base after year two
Month 12 MRR
$8,316.92
Monthly recurring revenue, year one
Month 24 MRR
$10,124.38
Monthly recurring revenue, year two
Profitable from
Month 1
Cumulative net profit turns positive
Total 24-mo profit
$84,442.63
Cumulative net at month 24
MRR projection
Three scenarios, 24 months
Solid line is your current inputs. Dashed lines compare a ±2% churn shift with ±20% acquisition — what an optimistic or pessimistic year looks like.
Loading chart…
Scenario compare
Reduce churn by 3 percentage points
The single highest-leverage move for most boxes. Here's exactly what it's worth against your current numbers.
7.0% monthly churn
- Month 12 MRR
- $8,316.92
- Month 24 MRR
- $10,124.38
- 24-mo total profit
- $84,442.63
- Profitable from
- Month 1
4.0% monthly churn
- Month 12 MRR
- $10,194.09
- Month 24 MRR
- $13,989.89
- 24-mo total profit
- $108,079.34
- Profitable from
- Month 1
What it's worth
A 3-point churn drop adds $47,261.61 in revenue over 24 months
That's equivalent to acquiring 1182 extra subscribers at your current price — without spending another dollar on ads.
Extra MRR at month 12$1,877.18Vs. current scenario
Extra 24-mo profit$23,636.71Cumulative net
Equivalent in new subs1182At current price
Month-by-month
24-month projection table
The highlighted row marks the first month cumulative net profit turns positive.
| Month | Subscribers | MRR | Gross profit | Net profit | Cumulative net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 · break-even | 113 | $4,518.87 | $2,260.00 | $1,760.00 | $1,760.00 |
| M2 | 125 | $5,002.35 | $2,501.80 | $2,001.80 | $3,761.80 |
| M3 | 136 | $5,451.98 | $2,726.67 | $2,226.67 | $5,988.47 |
| M4 | 147 | $5,870.15 | $2,935.81 | $2,435.81 | $8,424.28 |
| M5 | 157 | $6,259.04 | $3,130.30 | $2,630.30 | $11,054.58 |
| M6 | 166 | $6,620.70 | $3,311.18 | $2,811.18 | $13,865.76 |
| M7 | 174 | $6,957.05 | $3,479.40 | $2,979.40 | $16,845.16 |
| M8 | 182 | $7,269.86 | $3,635.84 | $3,135.84 | $19,981.00 |
| M9 | 189 | $7,560.77 | $3,781.33 | $3,281.33 | $23,262.33 |
| M10 | 196 | $7,831.32 | $3,916.64 | $3,416.64 | $26,678.96 |
| M11 | 202 | $8,082.92 | $4,042.47 | $3,542.47 | $30,221.44 |
| M12 | 208 | $8,316.92 | $4,159.50 | $3,659.50 | $33,880.94 |
| M13 | 213 | $8,534.53 | $4,268.33 | $3,768.33 | $37,649.27 |
| M14 | 218 | $8,736.92 | $4,369.55 | $3,869.55 | $41,518.82 |
| M15 | 223 | $8,925.13 | $4,463.68 | $3,963.68 | $45,482.50 |
| M16 | 228 | $9,100.17 | $4,551.22 | $4,051.22 | $49,533.73 |
| M17 | 232 | $9,262.96 | $4,632.64 | $4,132.64 | $53,666.37 |
| M18 | 235 | $9,414.35 | $4,708.35 | $4,208.35 | $57,874.72 |
| M19 | 239 | $9,555.15 | $4,778.77 | $4,278.77 | $62,153.49 |
| M20 | 242 | $9,686.09 | $4,844.26 | $4,344.26 | $66,497.75 |
| M21 | 245 | $9,807.86 | $4,905.16 | $4,405.16 | $70,902.90 |
| M22 | 248 | $9,921.11 | $4,961.80 | $4,461.80 | $75,364.70 |
| M23 | 251 | $10,026.43 | $5,014.47 | $4,514.47 | $79,879.17 |
| M24 | 253 | $10,124.38 | $5,063.46 | $4,563.46 | $84,442.63 |
Why 24 months
Churn compounds — a snapshot lies, a movie tells the truth
A box at 8% monthly churn doesn't lose 8% once. It loses 8% every single month. Over 24 months that erases most of any cohort, even with strong acquisition. The simulator shows the trajectory, not just the month-1 snapshot.
Where to focus
The churn lever beats the acquisition lever
Most founders pour budget into acquiring more subscribers. The scenario above shows the dollar truth: a 3-point churn drop usually adds more revenue than doubling ad spend — at a fraction of the cost.
FAQ
Questions about projecting growth
Seven questions founders ask most when reading the 24-month forecast.
Q01How accurate is a 24-month subscription box projection?
It's a directional tool, not a crystal ball. The math compounds your inputs — starting subscribers, churn, acquisition, and margin — exactly as a real subscriber base would. The unknowns are how your churn and CAC will actually move over 24 months. A useful rule: trust the relative comparisons (current vs. lower-churn, flat vs. percentage growth) much more than the absolute month-24 number. If the model shows $40,000 MRR at month 24 with 7% churn, the headline is the trajectory shape, not the exact dollar figure.
Q02Why does churn matter more than acquisition over 24 months?
Acquisition adds linearly, churn compounds geometrically. At 8% monthly churn you lose roughly 63% of any cohort within 12 months — every month. So a box adding 20 new subscribers/month at 8% churn plateaus around 250 subscribers; the same box at 5% churn plateaus around 400. The lower-churn scenario above shows the exact dollar difference: typically reducing churn by 3 percentage points adds more total revenue than doubling acquisition spend, and costs far less to implement.
Q03What's a realistic churn rate for the simulator?
Subscription box benchmarks: beauty boxes 7-9% monthly, food/meal boxes 8-12%, pet boxes 5-7%, men's lifestyle 5-7%, candle boxes 6-8%, book boxes 4-6%, kids boxes 6-8%. The healthiest boxes in any category sit at 4-6% monthly. Above 10% monthly, you have a retention crisis — no amount of acquisition will produce sustained growth. The simulator defaults to 7% which is the rough industry midpoint.
Q04Should I use flat or percentage growth?
Flat is more honest for most boxes year 1-2. 'Add 20 subscribers per month' assumes a steady-state acquisition channel (paid ads at fixed budget, organic at fixed rate) which matches what most operators actually do. Percentage growth ('grow 5% per month') compounds aggressively — at 5% monthly your subscriber base 5x's in two years, which only happens with viral product-market fit or aggressive funded acquisition. Use percentage if you have evidence of compounding referral growth; otherwise use flat.
Q05Why is my projected month for profitability so far out?
Two things drive a slow path to profitability: high fixed overhead relative to gross profit per box, and high churn eating into your active subscriber base. The math: monthly net profit = (subscribers × gross profit per box) − fixed overhead. If your gross profit per box is $20 and fixed overhead is $500, you need 25 paying subscribers just to break even on overhead — and the first 25 of any cohort take 3-4 months to net out at 7% churn. Pushing profitability earlier requires either lower fixed overhead, higher gross profit per box (raise price or cut COGS), or significantly lower churn.
Q06How should I use the planned price increase field?
Use it to model a real price increase you're considering — e.g., 'we plan to go from $39.99 to $44.99 in month 7'. The simulator applies the new price from that month forward to all subscribers, which is the most aggressive scenario. In reality, most platforms let you grandfather existing subscribers at the old price for 30-90 days, which softens the churn spike. As a rule of thumb, a 10-15% price increase causes a 1-3 percentage-point one-time churn bump within 30 days, then normalizes.
Q07What does 'gross profit per box' include?
Gross profit per box = subscription price − all variable per-box costs (product COGS, packaging, inbound and outbound shipping, fulfillment labor, payment processing fees, expected spoilage). It does NOT include fixed overhead (rent, software subscriptions, salaries, marketing). At a $39.99 box with $14 product, $3 packaging, $7 outbound shipping, $1.50 labor, and ~$1.50 processing fees, gross profit per box lands around $12.99 — not the $20 default. Use the Profit Calculator if you need to build this number from the ground up.
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